Favorited But Surprised: Model Points to Scheffler, Keefer, and Long Shots

The latest model predictions for the 2026 3M Open, coming off a fourth place at The British Open, favor Scottie Scheffler as the +260 (risk $100 to win $260) favorite. However, there are some surprising twists: Johnny Keefer and longshots are predicted to perform better than expected.

Model Predictions: This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters – its fifth in a row. It's now targeting Scheffler, as well as Johnny Keefer at +6000 odds.

According to reporting by CBS Sports - Headlines, Scheffler comes off a strong fourth-place finish but may find himself short of the top 5. On the other hand, 25-year-old Johnny Keefer is expected to rise up the leaderboard despite his longer odds. Keefer placed third at the Scottish Open two weeks ago and is among the best ball strikers on tour with skills that should translate well at TPC Twin Cities.

Scottie Scheffler: Favorite But Not So Certain

While Scheffler, who won The Masters this year, is a favorite (+260), the model predicts he won't secure his second win of the season. His recent struggles indicate potential risks:

  • Missed cut at The Open last week.
  • Fifty-fifth place finish in the previous tournament.
  • Thirty-second place just before that.

These statistics, combined with his approach and driver precision rankings, make him a safer bet to avoid than to win

Johannes Keefer: Longshot With Great Upside

A 25-year-old emerging talent, Johannes Keefer is seen as a long shot at +6000 odds despite his impressive recent performances. At the Scottish Open, he placed third and has additional top-10 finishes in driving distance and off-the-tee. His skills should perform well on iron play-heavy TPC Twin Cities.

Other Longshots to Watch

The model also points towards a massive longshot with higher odds than +6000 who can make an unexpected run for the title. Details of this golfer are not explicitly stated; however, there's value in taking these underdogs seriously.

Full Field and Best Bets: FanDuel’s 2026 3M Open odds reveal Scheffler favored but other players with better chances based on recent form include Johnny Keefer, who will face a large greens course favoring his skills. Longshots like Max Greyserman at +7000 and Zach Bauchou at +10000 are worth considering.

TCP Twin Cities, Minneapolis; Aug 9-13. Visit SportsLine for the full leaderboard and picks

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Scheffler’s form affect his chances?

Scheffler's recent struggles with missed cuts and low finishes (55th, 32nd) suggest he may not secure a top-five finish despite being the favorite

Could Johnny Keefer really do well at The 3M Open?

Despite long odds (+6000), Keefer's top-10 performances recently and favorable course conditions should not be overlooked; his skills in greens in regulation and off-the-tee make him an interesting play.