Scottie Scheffler Isn’t Top Pick; Sam Burns Emerges as Contender According to Model That’s Nailed 17 Majors
The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, set for TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn., marks the beginning of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs. With a purse of $20 million and quadrupled points, it promises to be an exciting event. However, the top picks according to SportsLine’s model come as a surprise.
This model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 golf majors, including five consecutive Masters wins. Now, for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, it predicts that reigning champ Scottie Scheffler (+500) may not be among the top contenders.
Royal Ranking: Scheffler’s Lower Odds
Despite starting at +500 odds, Scottie Scheffler isn’t in the top 10 picks for the championship, as reported by SportsLine. While he finished second a couple weeks ago, this is only his first top-10 finish since May and his lack of recent wins contributes to his lower placement.
Sam Burns Shines: Unexpected Top-3 Contender
On the other hand, Sam Burns (+2200) unexpectedly emerges as a top-3 contender. Burns has shown impressive form in major events this year, finishing seventh or better at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open, and Open Championship. His performance is backed by strong stats: he ranks 12th on tour in strokes gained: total and third in strokes gained: putting.
Longshot Bets to Consider
The model also points to a longshot at higher than +3000 odds, who has the potential to shock golf fans. You can see all picks from SportsLine now.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship?
The top players and their respective odds include:
- Scottie Scheffler +500
- Rory McIlroy +1300
- Xander Schauffele +2000
Why is Scottie Scheffler not favored?
Scheffler, the current points leader and reigning champion, isn't expected to top the leaderboard according to the model. His recent performance, with only one top-10 finish since May and no major wins, influences this ranking.
Who are the other contenders besides Scheffler?
Other notable players include Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Sam Burns (+2200), who the model predicts as strong contenders. Burns’ recent form at major tournaments has made him a top pick by the proprietary model.