Data shows running backs like Robinson and Gibbs are irreplaceable in the NFL

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, the No. 8 and No. 12 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, both seek new contracts with their teams, raising questions about whether it’s worth paying running backs such hefty salaries. According to reporting by CBS Sports - NFL.

Rare rushing yards: Robinson has 5,648 career yards from scrimmage through three seasons and Gibbs has 5,029. Only Christian McCaffrey (5,443) and Ezekiel Elliott (5,247) surpassed the 5K mark.

This level of production is rare because even later-round backs often fall short. For example, no randomly selected second-round back reached half of Robinson’s career yards through three seasons, while only two matched his 80% efficiency level in key categories over that period.

Receive and run: Gibbs’ 2025 route grade ranked in the 98th percentile among qualifying receiving backs, showcasing his all-around value on and off the ball.

Their combined rushing, receiving, and efficiency make Robinson and Gibbs difficult to replace. Early data analysis reveals that finding a second-round back who can match their production over multiple years is highly improbable, making them valuable assets for their teams.

Opportunities matter: Better draft picks tend to get more touches, but even later-round backs can remain productive if they perform well consistently.

Draft status influences a player’s workload, with first-rounders averaging 873 touches compared to just 153 for later round picks over three seasons. While this is less about opportunities and more about efficiency, it underscores the advantage early draftees often enjoy in professional football.

Long-term value: The wear-and-tear concerns surrounding running backs are valid, but data from 2016-20 show that paying a star like Robinson or Gibbs is often worth it despite potential injuries.

Todd Gurley’s cautionary tale aside, overall trends indicate that committed players retain productivity and value year after year. This long-term commitment is crucial for teams seeking consistent high performance from their running backs.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Robinson and Gibbs worth the investment?

Surely! Their unique combination of rushing, receiving, efficiency and longevity makes them invaluable assets that are difficult to replace. Data backs this up through three seasons, showing unmatched performance levels.

Will these players remain productive long-term?

Based on the data from 2016-20, the answer is yes. Long-term contracts for high-performing running backs often pay off, despite potential wear and tear concerns.